2019 CANADIAN BUDGET PREVIEW: Pessimistic Alberta Looking For Oil Export Relief

The commodity rich Canadian province of Alberta, whose oil sands are the world’s third-largest crude reserve, will be looking for some relief from low domestic oil prices in Tuesday’s Federal Budget, seeking dollars for its crude-by-rail plans and maybe even some relief for citizens whose pocketbooks are being stressed by the downturn in the oil industry.

The province of 4.3 million, which had become used to heady economic times prior to the oil price crash that started around 2014-15, has seen big drops in a host of key economic indicators, not least since domestic oil prices plunged again near the end of last year, to as much as $50 below the U.S. benchmark. According to the most recent data, motor vehicle sales were down 13.1% in from January, 2018, housing starts were down 18.3%, exports fell 4.5% and building permits fell 7%.

The long list of bad economic news stalled the province’s backbone industry, and with pipelines full, the province was forced to mandate a 325,000 barrel per day production cut in January.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley in December announced her government would spend $3.7 billion to acquire 4,400 rail tanker cars in order to raise export volumes of crude oil to U.S. markets and boost oil prices, since royalties from oil producers are the largest financial contributor to the province. Notley said she would welcome a federal move to pick up part of the tab and Ottawa has yet to rule out taking a stake in the plan.

Indeed, federal natural resources minister Amarjeet Sohi told the Calgary Herald last week that his government may consider making a contribution from an existing $700 million infrastructure fund.  “We can potentially fund some projects that will make the (rail) network more efficient and also help with the movement of other commodities,” he told the paper.

But other measures could also provide some help. Calgary, which had boomed as the financial center of the country’s oil industry, posted a 7.6% unemployment rate in February, the highest of 33 metropolitan areas monitored by Statistics Canada. Also, the price of single-family homes in the city have dropped 13% over the past year, leading opposition politicians in the province to call on the federal government to ease recently introduced mortgage restrictions in order to boost the real estate market. While its unsure if the federal Liberals are entertaining such a move, such steps would offer a bit of economic cheer to a pessimistic province.

Indeed, a poll released on Monday by Angus Reid reported 46% of Albertans said they felt their standard of living has fallen over the past 12 months. Though budget tidbits could help, few are expecting the economic picture to improve until oil prices recover.

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2019 CANADIAN BUDGET PREVIEW: Are Tax Changes in Store This Year?

The federal government has campaigned on promises to lower taxes for the middle class and raise taxes for the country’s highest income earners. But no action has been taken since 2016, when the government cut the tax rate on the middle-income bracket to 20.5% from 22%, said CIBC tax expert Jamie Golombek in a Financial Post commentary. At the same time, Ottawa introduced a 33% high-income bracket for those earning above $210,371. Golombek notes that adding in provincial/territorial rates puts Canada’s combined tax rates between 20% and 54%, depending on your income and location.

During the consultation process, Golombek notes that the Business Council of Canada supported increasing the federal personal income tax brackets to “more closely align them with the U.S. tax brackets.” The top federal U.S. tax rate is 37% and is reached when income tops US$510,300. The Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association advocated lowering the personal tax rate to “encourage the attraction and retention of a highly skilled labour force.” Accounting firm MNP LLP recommended the personal income tax bracket thresholds should be expanded “based on a higher multiple of the bottom bracket’s threshold” and that the combined federal/provincial marginal tax rate of Canadians should not exceed 50%,

The C.D. Howe’s annual shadow budget recommended doubling the threshold at which the top federal tax rate applies as “longer term, heavy taxes on high earners depress entrepreneurial activity and private investment. Excessively taxing the talent that fuels a more innovative, creative and successful economy is counterproductive.”

Of course, there’s no guarantee that Finance Minister Bill Morneau will take any action on taxes. But in an election year, anything is possible.

MT Newswires will be in the federal budget lock-up on March 19 and will release stories as soon as the budget embargo is lifted (approximately 4pm ET).

2019 CANADIAN BUDGET PREVIEW: Relief for First Time Home Buyers Expected

In what is expected to be a budget focused on spending, the federal government might take some action to assist first-time homebuyers, many of whom have been shut out of the real estate sector, due to higher costs and changing regulations.

The Toronto Real Estate Board has added its voice to calls for Ottawa to modify its new mortgage qualification rules in the wake of weaker home price sales.

The federal government’s stress test requires banks to ensure that borrowers can afford their mortgages even if interest rates are two percentage points higher than the level they negotiated.

“The stress test should be reviewed, and consideration should be given to bringing back 30-year amortizations for federally insured mortgages,” said TREB president Garry Bhaura in a statement.

The federal government is also facing calls to give first-time home buyers the option to repay their mortgages over 30 years instead of 25 years to lower their monthly payments and make it easier to get into the market.

But not everyone favours changes to the rules around home purchases. In a report, RBC said it isn’t even obvious that there is a problem with ownership rates themselves. “Most of the proposed solutions would actually make home ownership more challenging by inflating prices, unless they were accompanied by measures to improve supply,” RBC said in a report. “To the extent that the government follows this path, we also worry it would lead to a rise in the number of highly indebted, higher-risk households in Canada.”

MT Newswires will be in the federal budget lock-up on March 19 and will release stories as soon as the budget embargo is lifted (approximately 4pm ET).

Canadian Skyscrapers

2019 CANADIAN BUDGET PREVIEW: Seniors Looking for Pension Protection

There’s optimism among seniors that the federal government’s budget – due March 19 – will include measures aimed at protecting private-sector pensions in the event of a bankruptcy.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau has said his budget will include measures to protect seniors but provided no specifics.

Seniors advocates, including the Canadian Federation of Pensioners (CARP), the National Pensioners Federation and the Canadian Labour Congress, recently sent a joint letter to Prime Minister Trudeau calling for pension protections.

CARP noted that more than 16,000 Sears Canada pensioners face combined pension losses of $250 million since Sears became insolvent in June 2017.

The House of Commons finance committee supported several of CARP’s recommendations in a pre-budget report, including pension protection as well as loosening the mandatory withdrawal rules for Registered Retirement Income Funds (RRIFs) and an increase in benefits for low-income seniors who qualify for the Guaranteed Income Supplement, the Globe & Mail reported.

The potential pension changes would likely be focused on pensioners with defined-benefit (DB) plans, which are traditional pensions that provide a regular payment to retirees for life.

Ottawa launched consultations last year on several potential options that would encourage private-sector companies to ensure their pensions are well-funded.

MT Newswires will be in the federal budget lock-up on March 19 and will release stories as soon as the budget embargo is lifted (approximately 4pm ET).

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Weekly Commodities ETF Report: Crude Ends Week Higher as OPEC Keeps Output Cuts; Gold Rises as Investors Rush to Safe Haven Following Mass Shooting in New Zealand

(MT Newswires) – Crude prices ended Friday’s session lower following four days of consecutive gains, but ultimately closed the week in positive territory as global crude supplies appear to be tightening. Earlier in the week, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih pledged that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies would keep output cuts in place through June. Looking ahead, the OPEC and non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan over the weekend, with an official meeting set for Monday to review how much members and ally countries have been complying with production cuts. Back home, the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report showed that US crude stockpiles fell by 3.9 million barrels, at odds with expectations for a build of 2.5 million barrels. This also compares with the American Petroleum Institute’s report that US crude oil stocks showed a draw of 2.6 million barrels. Finally, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BHGE) reported Friday that the number of oil rigs operating in the US fell by 1 to 833, the lowest level since April 27, 2018. The count has also fallen by 20 in the past three weeks. The combined oil and gas rig count in the US also slipped by 1 to 1,026 as gas rigs were flat 193.

Light, sweet crude oil for April delivery rose 4.25% for the week, settling at $58.52 per barrel at the end of Friday’s session. In other energy futures, gasoline was up 2.72% during the week, settling at $1.86 per gallon on Friday. Natural gas fell 2.47% this week and closed down Friday at $2.80 per 1 million British thermal unit.

The SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return Index (SDCITR) was 0.74% higher this week, compared with a decline of 0.93% in the previous week.

Gold wrapped up the Friday session higher, settling at $1,302.90; for the week, it rose 0.23%. A weaker dollar, as well as geopolitical concerns over Brexit uncertainty and news of a mass shooting at two mosques in New Zealand, which resulted in 49 deaths and several injuries, have driven traders into safe- haven assets like gold. Renewed optimism for a US-China trade deal has also boosted the yellow metal, following a report from China’s official news agency saying the Chinese government and Trump administration have made progress in trade talks. On the other hand, copper closed Friday’s session at $2.91 per pound, edging 0.29% higher for the week. The red metal recovered from weakness earlier in the week, following news that industrial output in China fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of 2019.

In agriculture commodities, grains ended the week higher: corn rose 2.40% in the week and settled at $3.73 per bushel in Friday’s session; wheat rose 4.96% and settled at $4.62 per bushel at the end of Friday’s session; and soybeans were up 1.59% for the week, and closed Friday in positive territory at $9.09 per bushel. Corn ended the week with its largest gains since early January, with prices rising because of concerns for planting delays. The cold soil and muddy fields could impede the crop’s planting, while the weather could also hinder farmers’ efforts to fertilize their cornfields. Meanwhile, wheat saw its biggest weekly gain in more than three months, mostly due to short-covering.

Other commodities were mixed: sugar had a weekly increase of 3.20% and settled at a price of $1.25 per pound on Friday; coffee was around $0.98 per pound at Friday’s close, down 0.91% for the week; and cocoa inched 0.27% higher for the week and closed Friday’s session at $2,197 per tonne.

The SummerHaven Dynamic Agriculture Index Total Return Index (SDAITR) was down 2.19% for the week, widening from the prior week’s decline of 0.94%.

 

Copyright © 2019 MT Newswires, www.mtnewswires.com.

 

Information Contact: Justin Hillstrom – 720.917.0770 Email: Justin.hillstrom@alpsinc.com, Website is www.uscfinvestments.com

Investing involves risks, including loss of principal.

Commodity ETP Disclosures:  Download a copy of a Fund’s Prospectus by clicking one of the following:
USCIUSAGUSOUSLUSOUDNOUSODBNOUNGUNL, UGAUHN, or CPER

Please read any Prospectus carefully before investing.

These Funds are not mutual funds or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder.

Commodity trading is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Investing in commodity interests subject each Fund to the risks of its related industry. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment. These risks could result in large fluctuations in the price of a particular Fund’s respective shares. Funds that focus on a single sector generally experience greater volatility. Leveraged and inverse exchange-traded products pursue daily leveraged investment objectives which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing.

Please read the Prospectus carefully before investing.

Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results; current performance may be lower or higher. Investment returns/principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Most recent performance is available at www.uscfinvestments.com.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This information is intended for U.S. residents.

Funds distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. 

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Ford Motor Company

Ford Boss Landed $17.8 Million in Compensation for 2018 Despite Decline in Company’s Net Income

12:49 PM, Mar 15, 2019 — Ford’s (F) chief executive received a total compensation of approximately $17.8 million in 2018 despite the company posting a decline in net income the same year, according to a Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) filing.

The company reported in its SEC filing that total compensation for James Hackett, who was appointed to his role as CEO of the company in May 2017, was $17.8 million in 2018. In 2017, he made $16.7 million.

Based on this information, it said that the ratio of the annual total compensation of Hackett to the median of the annual total compensation of all employees is 276 to 1. In a letter to shareholders that was published as part of the filing, Ford Chairman William Clay Ford said that the company had taken “aggressive steps to improve the efficiency and focus” of its traditional automotive business in 2018.

“While 2018 was challenging, we still achieved our ninth consecutive year of solid earnings and positive operating-related cash flow,” he said. “These profits enabled us to distribute $3.1 billion to our shareholders last year, and $18.4 billion since 2012.”

In January, the company published results for the full year, which showed that company revenue increased from the prior year, while net income and company adjusted earnings before interest and tax were both lower.

Revenue rose to $160.34 billion from $156.78 billion a year earlier and net income was $3.70 billion compared to $7.76 billion a year earlier.

Price: 8.39 Price Change: -0.02 Percent Change: -0.19

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Johnson & Johnson Shares Drop Slightly After Jury Awards $29.4 Million in Talc Asbestos Case

9:03 AM, Mar 14, 2019 — Shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fell marginally in pre-bell trade on Thursday after the company was reportedly ordered to pay $29.4 million to a woman who said she got mesothelioma, a form of cancer, after using company products that contained asbestos.

Terry Leavitt said she used Johnson’s Baby Powder and Shower to Shower, both of which contained talc, in the 1960s and 1970s. She was diagnosed with mesothelioma, a form of cancer which is related to asbestos exposure, in 2017, according to news reports. More than a dozen suits have been filed against the company, which maintains that its products do not contain asbestos.

The suits came after Reuters reported in December that the company’s talcum-based products contained asbestos and that the company knew – something which Johnson & Johnson has said is not true.

Shares were down 1.7% in pre-market trading Thursday.

Johnson & Johnson said in December that the Reuters article was “one-sided, false, and inflammatory” and that its baby powder is safe and doesn’t contain asbestos. It cited studies of more than 100,000 people that showed talc doesn’t cause cancer and independent tests that show its products never contained asbestos.

A Johnson & Johnson spokesperson said in a statement to Courtroom View Network, which aired the trial, that there were procedural and evidentiary problems in the proceedings that required the company to move for a mistrial eight times. The company plans to appeal.

“Plaintiffs’ attorneys have fundamentally failed to show that Johnson’s Baby Powder contains asbestos, and their own experts concede that they are not recognizing the accepted definition of asbestos and are ignoring crucial distinctions between minerals that are asbestos and minerals that are not,” Spokesperson Kimberly Montagino said. “We respect the legal process and reiterate that jury verdicts are not medical, scientific or regulatory conclusions about a product.”

Companies: Johnson & Johnson
Price: 136.86 Price Change: -2.55 Percent Change: -1.83

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Weekly Commodities ETF Report: Crude Closes Week Higher Following Solid Import Data From China; Gold Firms Up as Disappointing February Jobs Data Pressure Stocks

(MT Newswires) – Crude prices ended Friday’s session lower, but ultimately closed the week in positive territory following solid import data from China. Crude oil imports by China reached 10.23 million bpd in February despite a week-long holiday in the month, posting a gain of nearly 22% from the same month last year, customs data on Friday showed. The world’s top crude oil importer bought 39.23 million metric tons of crude oil in February, marking the fourth straight month imports held above 10 million bpd. For the first two months of 2019, crude oil imports are up 12.4% from a year ago at 81.83 million tonnes, or 10.12 million bpd. China’s refined fuel exports rose 9.4% from a year ago to 3.81 million metric tons while imports fell 10% from a year ago to 2.35 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have pledged to continue with 1.2 million barrels per day of output cuts for at least the first six months of the year, supporting prices along with US sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. Back home, the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report showed that US crude stockpiles surged by 7.1 million barrels over a week to March 1, about 4% higher than the average at this time of the year. This also compares with the American Petroleum Institute’s report that US crude oil stocks soared 7.3 million barrels last week to 451.5 million barrels. Finally, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BHGE) reported Friday that the number of oil rigs operating in the US sank by nine to 834 rigs — the lowest level since early May. A year ago, the US oil count was at 796.

Light, sweet crude oil for April delivery rose 0.52% for the week, settling at $56.07 per barrel at the end of Friday’s session. In other energy futures, gasoline was up 4.32% for the week, settling at $1.80 per gallon on Friday. Natural gas for April delivery rose 0.63% on the week at $2.87 per 1 million British thermal unit.

The SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return Index (SDCITR) was 0.93% lower for the  week, which narrowed from a decline of 1.31% in the previous week.

Gold wrapped up the Friday session higher, settling at $1,299.30; for the week, it declined 0.40%. The yellow metal hit a six-week low of $1,280.80 on Thursday, then rallied higher following the European Central Bank announcement, which indicated no rate hikes until 2020. The ECB also cut its growth forecast to 1.1% in 2019, down from 1.7% projections. The gains were strengthened further on Friday as disappointing February jobs data put pressure on equities and drove traders to safe-haven markets like gold. The government reported that February nonfarm payrolls increased by 20,000 — the smallest gain in 17 months — versus the Econoday estimate of 175,000. On the other hand, copper closed Friday’s session at $2.89 per pound, slipping 0.85% for the week. The red metal’s losses were weighed by the latest data out of China, which showed that the country’s imports of refined metal plunged even as concentrate shipments rose. China’s imports of unwrought copper in February fell to 311,000 tonnes from a bumper 479,000 tonnes last month. This was the lowest monthly total since March 2018.

In agriculture commodities, grains ended the week lower: corn fell 2.15% in the week and settled at $3.64 per bushel in Friday’s session; wheat sank 4.10% and settled at $4.40 per bushel at the end of Friday’s session; and soybeans were down 1.70% for the week, and closed Friday in negative territory at $8.96 per bushel. This was the biggest weekly fall for soybeans in nearly two months, following a Reuters report that Chinese state-owned firms bought at least 500,000 tonnes of US soybeans on Thursday. Citing two traders with knowledge of the deals, the report said the soybeans were for shipment from Pacific Northwest grain export terminals from June to September. Other commodities were also lower: sugar had a weekly decline of 3.49% and settled at a price of $1.22 per pound on Friday; coffee was around $0.99 per pound at Friday’s close, down 2.20% for the week; and cocoa fell 0.63% lower for the week and closed Friday’s session at $2,198 per tonne.

The SummerHaven Dynamic Agriculture Index Total Return Index (SDAITR) was down 0.94% for the week, compared with a decline of 1.34% in the prior week.

 

Copyright © 2019 MT Newswires, www.mtnewswires.com.

 

Information Contact: Justin Hillstrom – 720.917.0770 Email: Justin.hillstrom@alpsinc.com, Website is www.uscfinvestments.com

Investing involves risks, including loss of principal.

Commodity ETP Disclosures:  Download a copy of a Fund’s Prospectus by clicking one of the following:
USCIUSAGUSOUSLUSOUDNOUSODBNOUNGUNL, UGAUHNor CPER  

Please read any Prospectus carefully before investing.

These Funds are not mutual funds or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder.

Commodity trading is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Investing in commodity interests subject each Fund to the risks of its related industry. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment. These risks could result in large fluctuations in the price of a particular Fund’s respective shares. Funds that focus on a single sector generally experience greater volatility. Leveraged and inverse exchange-traded products pursue daily leveraged investment objectives which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing.

Please read the Prospectus carefully before investing.

Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results; current performance may be lower or higher. Investment returns/principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Most recent performance is available at www.uscfinvestments.com.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This information is intended for U.S. residents.

Funds distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. 

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Etsy Has Chances for Product Development to Drive Growth But Wedbush Stays Cautious on Valuations

12:57 PM, Mar 8, 2019 — Etsy (ETSY) has opportunities for continued product developments that would drive more growth, but making improvements is getting “incrementally more challenging,” Wedbush Securities said in a note Friday.

The online crafting marketplace said at its investor day on Thursday that it has five-year targets for 16% to 20% growth in its gross merchandise sales, revenue growth slightly faster than GMS and 30%-plus adjusted margins in earnings, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

“While we’ve increasingly warned to not only Etsy’s market opportunity but its ability to capture it, we still remain cautious with valuation at such a premium,” analysts Ygal Arounian and Amir Chaudhri, who have a neutral rating and a $60 12-month price target on the stock, said in the note.

Social commerce on platforms like Facebook (FB), Instagram and Pinterest should be marketing focuses for Etsy, and there’s still work to be done on getting current users to come to the site more often, they said.

Wedbush isn’t expecting any price increases in the costs to sellers for using Etsy, but Arounian and Chaudhri said “in all likelihood, there aren’t as big levers to pull going forward.” Etsy is committed to its marketplace model, but they said there can be product and services launches to “drive upside.”

Etsy’s new management team has turned around a business model that Wedbush described as challenged and they’ve made product improvements that sped up sales as well as implemented the first ever price increase.

“On the other hand we still see long-term demand constraint on this two sided marketplace as we believe a craft marketplace, while having value, is a difficult one to truly move buyers to visit more frequently,” the analysts said.

Companies: Etsy, Inc.
Price: 67.25 Price Change: +0.01 Percent Change: +0.01

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Harley Davidson $HOG

Harley-Davidson Demand Hurt by Competition, Pre-Owned Pricing as Company Moves Into Electric Market

12:48 PM, Mar 6, 2019 — Increased competition combined with depressed prices of Harley-Davidsons (HOG) on the pre-owned market segment are weighing on demand, according to Wedbush, though the investment bank said offsetting measures include management’s increased innovation in the last two years that include expansion into the electric segment.

Analysts said the company headed by Matthew Levatich is facing stiffer competition from Indian Motorcycle, which is directly targeting Harley Davidson’s core customers with respect to heritage, styling and pricing.

“There remains underlying excitement for the direction Harley is moving with its new model platforms, but the 2020-plus model years are doing dealers no favors in drawing in younger buyers for new bikes in the short-term,” analysts including James Hardiman wrote in a research note sent to clients on Wednesday.

Hardiman said he sees January registrations retreating in the low double-digits after a 10% decline in retail sales in the fourth quarter. However, a surge in tax refunds could constitute a tail-wind over the next six weeks. Still, disbursements in the first two months have slumped by about 4%.

To address the high cost of ownership prospects say is the biggest purchase barrier, management marketed earlier this week the cheaper Electra Glide Standard. The “bare-bones” $19,000 product, priced $5,500 below the Electra Glide Ultra Classic, might contribute to halting what Wedbush says is shrinking market share.

Going forward, the Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based manufacturer plans to diversify its product mix by penetrating the electric segment with the launch of its Livewire model, expected in August. Projections for the new product remain mixed, Wedbush says, with some dealers anticipating significant pent-up demand for the bike while others balking at the price tag of some $30,000, the second most expensive non-custom model in the firm’s portfolio.

In a bid to expand its customer base, the 115-year-old company said Tuesday it acquired StaCyc, a maker of electric-powered motorcycles designed for children in a bid to stay at the fore of electric cycling.

StaCyc entered the market in 2016 and sells the small e-drive vehicles from $649 to $699 through 29 Harley-Davidson dealerships as well as other powersports dealerships, online and in specialty bicycle retailers.

In 2019, the investment bank expects the company’s revenues to drop for the first time in at least three years, retreating to $4.84 billion and dragging down earnings per share to $3.12 from $3.19 last year. With a neutral stock recommendation, Wedbush set the 12-month price target on the shares at $35, or 10% below Tuesday’s close. The stock retreated 0.6% on Wednesday.

Companies: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Price: 38.37 Price Change: -0.43 Percent Change: -1.11

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